It is not the usual two-man race, this guy is shaking things up, Nigerians have signed up to vote in record numbers on Election Day, February 25. After eight tough years under President Muhammadu Buhari, a lot of people feel a lot needs to change, it's a crucial vote for Nigerians, Africa's most populous nation faces a worsening economic and security situation.
"We are tired of all these years of darkness and suffering, we must vote right and we must vote wisely too." ~Anonymous
Who are the Main candidates?
Why is the presidential election so different?
And Why is it so hard to predict a winner?
Nigeria got the biggest population in Africa 213 million people half of them are under 19 and it's incredibly dense. It's got more or less half Muslim and half Christian there is also a geographical dimension to that religious split.
"Nigeria's political people always tend to look more favorably to the person who speaks their language and understands their culture." ~ Cheta Nwaeze, lead partner IBM Intelligence.
Now usually, the presidential election comes down to a choice between two candidates from the two main parties, the People's Democratic Party PDP and the All Progressive Congress APC.
Usually, those candidates find parties that fit with an unwritten rule where the Presidency rotates between a Christian from the south and a Muslim from the north which is what President Buhari is. The pattern would suggest that the next president should be a Christain from the south which neither of the two-man candidates is.
For starters, we have got Bola Tinubu for the ruling APC, is the former governor of Lagos state, and he is from the south, although he is a Muslim, then there is Atiku Abubakar former Vice President of Nigeria who is the PDP candidate, he is also a Muslim but from the North. Now people think that. This breaks with the usual pattern and risks religion and ethnicity being an even bigger issue in this election than usual.
"The vote Mark will look very, very ethical, as people vote along regional lines and religious lines. So everyone is either thinking in silos, that, look thus is our turn, we have to support one of our own, while the young people are saying that there has to be a generational change." ~ Idayat Hassan, Center for Democracy and Development.
A lot of young people are thinking a huge part of the election vacation a lot of them are getting behind a third contender Peter Obi and having three front runners as the first, Obi is a Christian from the south and was a governor of Anambra state. A job lot of people think he did quite well and he ran for Vice President of PDP in 2019, now is running for the party even though he is in his 60s and super wealthy. He is seen by his supporters as more dynamic and more in tune with what younger people want.
"Unlike your average politician, who is a big man in every sense of this world order. Obi is regularly seen carrying his briefcase, carrying his bags, and joining the queue at airports. This is what appeals to young people. He is accessible, people can approach him, and he does not move around like a huge convoy like your average, garden variety Nigeria Politician." ~ Cheta Nwaeze, lead partner IBM Intelligence.
"He has brought up the excitement, but importantly he's also given the dominant part, a run for their money so they can no longer afford to sit and be docile." ~ Idayat Hassan, Center for Democracy and Development.
One of the reasons for that is how the vote works. because to win the presidency a candidate has to get a majority of the overall national vote, but they also have to win at least 25 percent of the vote in two-thirds of Nigeria's 36 States plus the federal capital territory home to the capital, Abuja. That's to make sure the president has a spread of support across the country.
"So with these candidates, it is harder for any of them to win outright but there is also another candidate people talk about Rabiu Kwankwaso." ~ Cheta Nwaeze, lead partner IBM Intelligence.
Kwankwaso is a Muslim from the North and the former governor of Kano state. He probably doesn't have the national appeal needed to win, but he is very popular in the North. And that could further split the vote for the other three candidates and all this means the presidential election may well go to a Second round.
"We don't see a situation where anybody would get that required spread and we don't see a situation where anybody would get the 50% plus one that is required to win, which means that we will be looking at a run-off for the first time in Nigeria's history." ~ Cheta Nwaeze, lead partner IBM Intelligence.
Right now the race is looking wide open, and turnout is unexpected to be high. The election commission says 19 million new voters have registered. 84 percent of them are under 34 years. The candidate who will probably benefit first from that is Peter Obi and he is a favorite in pretty much every poll.
But polls in Nigeria can mislead and some people are questioning whether all the hype around Obi will translate into votes either because he is over-hyped or for other reasons.
"One thing that polls can not consider is, for example, the dynamics of Nigeria's electoral process. When people go to polling units and somebody waves a wad of cash at them what happens then? " ~ Cheta Nwaeze, lead partner IBM Intelligence.
"Regardless of one's Grassroots popularity, if all the forces of incumbency, control, and money flowing of course as well, are stacked against you like they appear to be stacked against Peter Obi, then it's going to be very difficult for him to essentially compete on a level playing field." ~ Matthew Page, African Programme Chatham House
Whoever ends up taking over from president Buhari is going to be under pressure to deal with some really serious and urgent problems. The economy is tanking, there is widespread corruption and 40 percent of Nigerians live below the poverty line.
There is Boko haram and an ISIL affiliate group in the north, violence between farmers and herders fighting over land, kidnapping by criminal hands, armed groups stealing oil, and separatists fighting in the southeast.
"There is a sense, both among Nigeria and long-time Nigerian watchers like myself, that Nigeria is on an extremely worrying path at the moment so, with her excitement, and labor, potential Christians have a last or next-to-last - opportunity to turn the ship around." ~ Matthew Page, African Programme Chatham House
There is a despondence, there is a feeling of like Oh, yes, the state has failed. The people are not feeling the impact of democracy and these elections then represent an opportunity to again negotiate this democracy and to see if it can bring development to the people.
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